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Texas Sheds 11,100 Jobs in September as Dallas Fed Trims Its Forecast
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Business

Texas Sheds 11,100 Jobs in September as Dallas Fed Trims Its Forecast

The state still added jobs over the year, but the monthly dip and a lower 2026 outlook point to a slowing labor market.

2 min read

Texas employers cut 11,100 jobs in September, and the Dallas Fed trimmed its full-year forecast, according to data released in mid-October.

The Texas Workforce Commission reported 14,461,300 nonfarm jobs for September. Over the past 12 months the state added 154,300 jobs, a 1.1% rate that the agency said beat the national pace by 0.8 percentage points. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 4.4%.

A lower forecast

In its Oct. 19 forecast, the Dallas Fed now expects Texas employment to grow 0.9% in 2026 (80% confidence band: 0.6% to 1.2%), or about 134,000 jobs, ending the year near 14.5 million. September employment fell at an annualized 1.6% rate, and year-to-date growth of 0.8% sits well below the state's long-run 2% average. August's gain was revised up to 2.3%.

Dallas Fed economist Luis Torres tied the slowdown to labor-supply constraints, partly reflecting much lower immigration. Employment fell in most sectors, with manufacturing a bright spot, helped by oil and gas activity, exports and AI-related construction.

Metro unemployment rates fell in Brownsville–Harlingen, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington–Grapevine and Houston, were unchanged in Austin and Dallas, and rose in San Antonio.

Sources: Dallas Fed — Texas Employment Forecast, Oct. 19, 2026; InsuranceNewsNet — Dallas Fed forecast summary.

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